**REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023** >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. **REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023** >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023.PHINTRACO SEKURITAS (AT) *"2024 Economic & Market Outlook: Searching for Opportunities in a Political Year."* -December 2023- --------------- *REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023* >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. *REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023* >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023. --------------- *OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. *OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Visit our website : www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id www.taspro.co.id --------------- **OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. **OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

REVIEW : Ekonomi dan Pasar Modal Global 2022 >Pandemi COVID-19 relatif terkendali secara global, terutama di 2H-2022. >Akselerasi pemulihan aktivitas ekonomi tidak dapat diimbangi oleh peningkatan supply. >Perang Rusia-Ukraina memperparah supply chain disruption, terutama pada komoditas-komoditas energi. >Lonjakan inflasi, terutama di AS dan Eropa salah satunya dipicu kenaikan harga komoditas energi. >Pengetatan kebijakan moneter agresif oleh mayoritas bank sentral untuk meredam tekanan inflasi. >Kebijakan tersebut memicu kekhawatiran inflasi yang berdampak negatif pada pergerakan indeks pasar modal. REVIEW : Ekonomi dan Pasar Modal Indonesia 2022 >Pandemi COVID-19 relatif terkendali pasca gelombang kedua di awal 2022. >Kenaikan nilai ekspor, ditengah tingginya harga komoditas berdampak positif pada pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. >Pemerintah dan Bank Indonesia masih mampu mempertahankan kebijakan moneter dan fiskal akomodatif, setidaknya hingga Q3-2022. >Kenaikan harga BBM subsidi di September 2022 memicu kenaikan inflasi. >Kenaikan inflasi dan capital outflow di Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) mendorong BI untuk mulai menaikkan sukubunga acuan di September 2022. >Capital inflow cukup besar terjadi di pasar modal Indonesia menopang penguatan IHSG secara ytd. --------------- OUTLOOK : Ekonomi dan Pasar Modal Global 2023 >Pemerataan vaksinasi COVID-19 akan menjadi kunci berakhirnya pandemi COVID-19. >Belum ada titik terang penyelesaian perang Rusia-Ukraina. >Krisis energi dan krisis pangan akan menjadi perhatian utama di 2023. >Inflasi diperkirakan masih tinggi, terutama di 1Q-2023. >Bank-bank sentral diperkirakan masih akan mempertahankan sukubunga acuan di level tinggi, setidaknya hingga terdapat sinyal kuat penurunan inflasi. >Sejumlah negara diperkirakan memasuki resesi, sementara mayoritas negara di Asia diperkirakan masih bisa mempertahankan pertumbuhan ekonomi di 2023. OUTLOOK : Ekonomi dan Pasar Modal Indonesia 2023 >Pemerintah RI memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 5.2% yoy di 2023. >Postur anggaran membaik dibanding periode pandemi (2020-2022). >Tekanan bagi BI terkait kebijakan moneter diperkirakan masih cukup besar di 2023, mulai dari kenaikan inflasi hingga pelemahan nilai tukar Rupiah. >Sektor Perbankan Indonesia (SPI) diperkirakan masih mempertahankan tren kinerja positif di 2023 meski dibayangi potensi peningkatan restrukturisasi utang. >Target IHSG untuk tahun 2023 di level 8205 (base). >IDX Industrials Focus : Telecommunication; Telecommunication Tower; Media & Entertainment; Food & Beverages and Household Products; Financials—Bank; Energy - Coal Producers; Plantations - CPO Producers; Infrastructures - Building Construction; Property and Real Estate; Construction - Related; Automotive; Heavy Machinery.